Any prediction ?

I have been anticipating a Rally in the general stockmarket for some time now (and this is why I was not willing to bet on a Bear market in stocks) but it hasn't happened.

Maybe it is also because I lost some money in the summer of 2006 betting on a Bear market.

I am much more comfortable betting on gold stocks, even though they are quite anemic right now.

Ultimately I am confident that they will profit from the high gold price. It is just a question of time and shifting sentiment.

I have read somewhere that they will catch up only when both stocks and bonds fall, but it hasn't happened yet.

It is clear that market manipulation by the FED and the Plunge Protection Team is affecting sentiment. It is scary for stock bears.

So people become bullish almost reluctantly I should say.

But let's not forget that the trend is now clearly bearish

So I will consider this bearish position as a test : it is a small position for now, and I already exited half of it with a small loss.

I might reposition it a little higher. I know I should have this position as a complement to my gold stocks position. But let's be cautious. because it might be too late in the short term.


In other words, I am not ready to make any precise predictions for now.

Even the magnitude of Gold rise has surprised me.

I did not think it would reach 1000$ so soon and without a significant correction.

But now it might go farther before it falls: 1100-1150 ?

Good Bye Bear Stearns !

What happened ?
Bear Stearns probably lost A LOT of money in derivatives, probably Credit Default Swaps especially (but we won't know how much) and was on its way to bankrupcy.Then it was purchased by JP Morgan last Sunday for 2$ a share while it quoted 30$ on friday's close.The whole deal was encouraged and financed by the FED.At the same time it annouced a 25bps cut in the discount rate.
This is getting weirder and weirder.
It's becoming obvious that the public is not told the whole story about this Wall Street mess.
But Gold broke the 1000$ level on Friday even before this announcement.
Gold is definitely telling its own story.
on Sunday night (european time), when the deal was announced and Asia opened, Gold even 1025$, but then there was strong selling.Today it's at 1005$
But something definitely happened this week, and it has even reached the headlines of mainstream newspaper, and television broadcast.
They have noticed, but from what I see they have not really understood what is going on.
Now we're waiting for the FED decision concerning rates, in 1 hour.

Stocks in Asia and Europe took a pounding on Monday, but recovered on Tuesday.

I took a small bearish position and apart from that, I stick with the gold stocks