Let's start with the situation in Lebanon.
This is a very sad one, and one which has the potential of making many people angry.
Lebanon was a country on its way to democracy and a prosperity that had previously earned it the nickname of "Switzerland of the Middle East". But everything is destroyed now and it is a considerable waste.
It seems that certain countries are cursed, like Iraq for example. But there's nothing irrational about that. These countries have weak states and a fragmented identity. They are artificial creations, and they have been the toys of foreign powers for a very long time. And they are strategically located, at the crossroad between several bigger powers.
But Lebanon itself is not so important. Iraq is far more important for example, because it has oil and borders Iran, the greatest power in the region. But symbolically it is very important. It confirms the bad reputation of the US in the region, and even the moderates cannot deny it. And so it can only encourage the radicals.
It also comforts the situation of Iran which is in a better position to negociate with the West, about its status, its safety, and, of course, nuclear weapons, which are its guarantee.
Everybody knows by now that the real conflict is between the US and Iran, with Israel as an advanced post of the americans.
Old Europe would like everyone to calm down and Russia and China use this situation to advance their strategic interests.
But, in short, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better
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